Each indicator on the dashboard is evaluated against research-calibrated thresholds and assigned one of three statuses. Healthy means the indicator is within a normal range with no elevated recession risk. Caution means the indicator has moved into a range historically associated with economic slowdowns, but has not reached recession-level territory. Alert means the indicator has crossed a threshold historically associated with recession onset or active financial stress.
Section-level status rolls up from individual indicator readings using rules specific to each section. For full details on how thresholds are set, see the Methodology page.
No. This dashboard is an informational tool for tracking publicly available economic data. Nothing on this site should be interpreted as investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It is a database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis that provides free public access to hundreds of thousands of economic data series from government agencies including the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve itself. All data displayed on this dashboard is sourced directly from the FRED API.
The dashboard refreshes automatically on weekdays when new FRED data is published. Not all indicators update at the same frequency — GDP is quarterly, most labor and consumer data is monthly, and financial market data updates daily or weekly. The dashboard always shows the most recent available observation for each series. The "Last Updated" timestamp in the header shows when the dashboard was last rebuilt.
Each section of the dashboard includes a short written narrative generated by Anthropic's Claude AI. Rather than leaving you to interpret the numbers on your own, the narrative translates the current data values and section status into plain-English context — explaining what the indicators are saying individually, how they relate to each other, and how current conditions compare to historical patterns.
Only anonymized economic data values are sent to the Claude API for narrative generation. No user data or personally identifiable information is ever transmitted. Narratives are regenerated automatically each time new FRED data is published, and are identified throughout the dashboard by the ✦ AI Analysis label.
The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator developed by economist Claudia Sahm. It triggers when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its lowest point in the prior 12 months. Historically, this threshold has been crossed at or near the start of every US recession since 1970, making it one of the most reliable coincident recession signals available. It is included in the Recession Signals section of this dashboard.
The yield curve plots interest rates on US Treasury bonds across different maturities. Normally, longer-term bonds pay higher rates than short-term bonds — investors expect more compensation for lending money over a longer period. When short-term rates rise above long-term rates, the yield curve "inverts." An inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession in modern history, typically by 6 to 18 months.
This dashboard tracks two yield curve spreads: the 10-year minus 2-year spread (T10Y2Y) and the 10-year minus 3-month spread (T10Y3M). Both going negative is a stronger signal than either alone.
Stock markets can rise — and stay elevated — even when consumers are under significant financial stress. The S&P 500 reflects the earnings expectations of large corporations, which can remain strong even as ordinary households face rising debt delinquencies, stagnant wages, and falling consumer confidence.
The Disconnect Chart at the top of the dashboard indexes both the S&P 500 and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to 100 from the same starting point. When they diverge sharply, it signals that financial markets and consumer reality are telling different stories — a condition that has historically been unsustainable.
Both Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, excluding food and energy) and CPI (Consumer Price Index) measure inflation, but they differ in methodology and scope. The Federal Reserve officially targets Core PCE at 2% annually because it adjusts for changes in consumer behavior as prices shift, giving a more accurate picture of underlying inflation. CPI uses a fixed basket of goods and tends to run slightly higher than Core PCE. This dashboard tracks both, with thresholds offset to account for the typical gap between the two measures.
The JOLTS ratio is the number of job openings (from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) divided by the number of unemployed people. A ratio above 1.0 means there are more open jobs than unemployed workers — conditions that favor workers in wage negotiations. A ratio below 1.0 means there are more jobseekers than openings, shifting leverage toward employers. The ratio peaked near 2.0 in 2022 and is tracked in the Labor Market section of this dashboard.
Indicators marked with a ★ in their chart title are scored indicators — they feed directly into the section's Healthy / Caution / Alert status. Indicators without a star appear on charts for context and interpretive value but do not affect scoring. This distinction matters because some data series are useful for understanding trends visually but lack the statistical reliability needed to drive a threshold-based status system.
Thresholds are calibrated against historical FRED data going back several decades, with a focus on how each indicator behaved in the months before and during past recessions. Where possible, thresholds are anchored to the post-2009 data regime, since structural changes following the Global Financial Crisis make pre-2009 norms unreliable benchmarks for several series. Thresholds are reviewed annually and recalibrated after major structural breaks. For full details, see the Methodology page.
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