Recession — A significant, broad-based decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months, visible in employment, income, spending, and production. In the US, recessions are officially dated by the NBER, not by any single indicator.
NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) — The private nonprofit that officially declares when US recessions start and end. NBER dates lag real time, often by months, because it waits for revised data — it confirms recessions, it doesn't predict them.
Leading vs. Coincident vs. Lagging Indicator — A leading indicator (like the yield curve) tends to move before the broader economy turns. A coincident indicator (like CFNAI) moves alongside it. A lagging indicator (like the unemployment rate) confirms a turn after it's already happened.
Basis Point (bps) — One-hundredth of a percentage point. A move from 4.00% to 4.50% is 50 basis points. Used for bond spreads because the moves are often too small to describe cleanly in whole percentage points.
Year-over-Year (YoY) — Comparing a value to the same point 12 months earlier, which cancels out seasonal patterns (e.g., holiday retail spikes) so the underlying trend is visible.
Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) Annualized — The pace of change from one quarter to the next, projected out as if that same pace continued for a full year. This is how US GDP is conventionally reported — a quarter that grew 0.5% gets reported as "2.0% annualized" (roughly 0.5% x 4), not as the raw 0.5%. It makes quarterly data comparable to annual growth rates, but it also exaggerates a single weak or strong quarter, since one quarter's blip gets stretched across the whole year's framing.
K-Shaped Economy — A divergence where different income groups experience opposite economic conditions at the same time — for example, higher earners paying credit card balances in full while lower earners increasingly fall behind. Named for the shape of two diverging lines.
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) — A statistical correction that removes predictable, recurring patterns — like holiday retail spikes or summer hiring surges — so that month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter changes reflect real economic shifts rather than the time of year. Nearly every series on this dashboard is seasonally adjusted; it's quiet but constant background math behind almost every number shown here.
Dual Mandate — The Federal Reserve's two legally assigned goals: stable prices (low, predictable inflation) and maximum sustainable employment. The Inflation and Labor Market sections of this dashboard track progress on each half of that mandate directly.
Monetary Policy — The tools the Federal Reserve uses to influence the economy, primarily by raising or lowering the federal funds rate and adjusting the size of its balance sheet. This is distinct from fiscal policy, which is government taxing and spending decisions made by Congress and the President — the Fed has no control over that side.
Yield Curve / Yield Curve Inversion — Normally, longer-term Treasury bonds pay more interest than short-term ones, because lenders want extra compensation for tying up money longer. When that flips — short-term rates pay more than long-term — it's called an inversion, and it has preceded every US recession since the 1950s, though with a lag that varies from months to over a year.
Sahm Rule — A real-time recession signal that triggers when the 3-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 percentage points or more above its low point in the prior 12 months. Unlike the yield curve, it's a coincident signal — it confirms a downturn is likely already underway rather than warning of one in advance.
CFNAI (Chicago Fed National Activity Index) — A single index built from 85 different economic data series (employment, production, sales, and more) into one number. Zero represents trend growth; sustained readings below roughly -0.7 have historically aligned with recessions.
Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSENT) — The University of Michigan's monthly survey asking households how they feel about their finances and the economy. It reflects perception, not hard data, so it can stay depressed even when other indicators look fine — but sharp drops often precede pullbacks in spending.
Real Disposable Personal Income — Income left after taxes, adjusted for inflation. "Real" means inflation-adjusted throughout government data — it's the difference between your paycheck growing and your paycheck actually buying more.
Retail Sales (ex Food Services) — Total spending at retail stores, excluding restaurants and bars (which are tracked separately as services, not goods). A near real-time read on whether consumers are still spending.
Delinquency Rate — The percentage of loan balances that are 30+ days past due. Tracked separately for credit cards, auto/other consumer loans, and mortgages, since stress tends to show up in one before the others.
Initial Jobless Claims — The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time each week. One of the most current labor-market signals available, since it's reported weekly with almost no lag.
Unemployment Rate (U-3) / U-6 — U-3 is the headline rate: people actively looking for work who can't find it. U-6 is broader — it adds people working part-time who want full-time work, and people who've stopped looking but would take a job. U-6 is always higher than U-3, but the gap matters less than the trend.
Nonfarm Payrolls — The net number of jobs added or lost across the economy each month, excluding farm work and a few other categories. The single most-watched monthly labor report.
JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) — A monthly survey of job openings, hires, and separations. Job openings measure labor demand independent of how many people are actually unemployed.
Job Openings-to-Unemployed Ratio — Job openings divided by the number of unemployed people. Above 1.0 means more open jobs than job seekers (workers have leverage in negotiating pay); below 1.0 flips that balance toward employers.
NFCI (Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index) — A composite measure of how loose or tight credit and financial markets are. Below zero means looser-than-average conditions; above zero means tighter, which makes it harder and more expensive for businesses and households to borrow.
High-Yield (Junk Bond) Spread — The extra interest rate investors demand to lend to the riskiest ("junk-rated") companies, compared to safe Treasury bonds. Spreads widen when investors get nervous about defaults — often before broader markets react.
BBB Corporate Bond Spread — The same concept, but for the lowest tier of investment-grade debt. Watched alongside the high-yield spread because a wave of BBB downgrades to junk status ("fallen angels") can force funds to sell, amplifying stress.
Federal Funds Rate — The interest rate the Federal Reserve sets for banks lending to each other overnight. It's the lever the Fed uses to influence borrowing costs throughout the entire economy.
30-Year Mortgage Rate — The benchmark fixed rate for a standard 30-year home loan. Tracked here relative to the Fed funds rate, since the size of that gap reflects mortgage-market-specific stress beyond just where the Fed has set rates.
Drawdown — The percentage decline from a recent peak. The dashboard tracks the S&P 500's drawdown from its highest closing price in the prior 52 weeks, which is a cleaner stress signal than the raw index level, since it shows how far the market has actually fallen rather than just where it sits in absolute terms.
Correction / Bear Market — A "correction" is an unofficial term for a drawdown of roughly 10–20% from a recent peak; a "bear market" generally refers to a drawdown of 20% or more. Neither has a single official definition the way a recession does, but both are widely used shorthand for how severe a market decline has gotten.
Bull Market — The opposite of a bear market: a sustained period of rising prices, generally accompanied by investor optimism. There's no precise percentage threshold the way there is for a correction or bear market — it's mostly defined by direction and duration rather than a fixed number.
Stock Market Index — A basket of stocks tracked together as a single number to represent a segment of the market, rather than any one company. The S&P 500, which this dashboard tracks, bundles 500 large US companies — so its movement reflects broad market sentiment, not the fortunes of any single business.
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) — The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, excluding volatile food and energy prices. "Core" appears throughout inflation data and always means food and energy stripped out, because those prices swing for reasons unrelated to underlying economic conditions.
CPI (Consumer Price Index) — The most widely cited inflation measure, tracking the price of a fixed basket of goods and services a typical household buys. Runs slightly higher than Core PCE most of the time due to methodology differences.
Stagflation — A combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and rising unemployment occurring at the same time. It's an unusual and difficult condition for the Fed to fight, because the normal tool for lowering inflation (raising interest rates) tends to slow growth and raise unemployment further. Not a current condition reflected on this dashboard, but a term worth knowing if inflation and labor readings ever worsen together.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) — The value of everything produced in the US economy. The dashboard uses real GDP (FRED series GDPC1), which is adjusted for inflation so growth reflects actual output rather than rising prices. Reported quarterly as an annualized growth rate — meaning the quarter's pace is projected out as if it continued for a full year, which is why a single bad quarter can look more dramatic than it is in isolation.
Technical Recession — A commonly used (but not official) definition of a recession: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. It's a simple rule of thumb, not what NBER actually uses to date recessions — NBER looks at a broader set of indicators and can decline to call a recession even when this rule is technically met, or vice versa.